To get a sense of the public interest in the Vision Pro, Apple's very high-tech, very expensive virtual reality (VR) headset - finally launched in the UK and Europe on Friday - where better to head than one of its own stores?
In the past, people camped outside Apple branches overnight, so desperate were they to get their hands on the tech giant's latest product.
When I went to its branch in central London on Friday morning, though, there was just a small group, mainly comprised of men, waiting for the doors to open.
Partly, that's because people these days prefer the convenience of pre-orders.
But it also perhaps tells us something about the question that continues to hang over the VR headset market: will it ever escape the realm of tech aficionados and go truly mainstream?
Apple's plan to make its product break through is to position it as a product you use to do the stuff you already do – only better. Home videos become 3D-like, panoramic photos stretch from floor to ceiling, 360 degrees around you. Apple keeps reminding me it calls this “spatial content”. Nobody else does. Plenty suck their teeth at the Vision Pro's price though - a whopping £3,499.
Facebook owner Meta has been watching Apple’s approach closely. It’s been in the VR game a long time. At a recent demo for the Meta Quest 3, which has been available in the UK since 2023, the team was very keen to talk to me about “multi-tasking” – having multiple screens in action at once. In a demo I had a web browser, YouTube and Messenger in a line in front of me. “We always did this, we just didn’t really talk about it,” one Meta worker told me.
And in its most recent advertisement, a man wears a Quest 3 to watch video instructions while building a crib. Not the most exciting concept, perhaps, but it shows just how Meta wants people to see its tech.
Oh - and it costs less than £500.
Apple and Meta are the two big players but VR is a crowded market - there are dozens, maybe hundreds, of different headsets already out there.
But what unites them all is none have quite hit the mainstream.
Up until now, the Vision Pro has only been on sale in the US - research firm IDC predicts it will shift fewer than 500,000 units this year.
Meta, which has been in the market longer, does not release sales data for the Quest either but it's thought to have sold around 20 million worldwide.
VR headsets are nowhere near as ubiquitous as tablets, let alone mobile phones.
And it gets worse - George Jijiashvili, analyst at market research firm Omdia, said of those devices sold, many are abandoned.
“This is largely due to the limited in-flow of compelling content to keep up engagement,” he said.
But of course lack of content leads to reduced interest - and a reduced incentive for developers to make that content in the first place.
"It's a chicken and egg situation," Mr Jijiashvili told the BBC.
Alan Boyce, the founder of mixed reality studio DragonfiAR, warned that early adopters of the Vision Pro would have to “be patient” while more content arrived.
That's where the Quest 3 wins out for him - it already has a "robust library" of games, and it can perform virtual desktop tasks just like the Vision Pro.
And IDC analyst Francisco Jeronimo says we should not be too quick to write off a slow start for Apple’s new product.
“There’s always the expectation that Apple with every single product will sell in the millions straight away, there’s always the comparison with the iPhone,” he said.
But the reality is even the iPhone took time to find its feet - and a huge number of buyers.
According to Melissa Otto from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the iPhone only became mainstream when the App Store "started to explode with apps that added value to our lives".
"When people start to feel their lives are becoming better and more convenient, that's when they're willing to take the leap," she said.
The VR experience
There is another factor to consider here too though: the physical experience of using a headset.
Both Apple and Meta use so-called "passthrough" technology to enable what is known as mixed reality - the blending of the real and computer-generated worlds.
By utilising cameras on the outside of the headset, users are given a live, high-definition video feed of their surroundings - meaning they can wear it while doing things like walking or exercising.
But strapping something to your face weighing half a kilogram is not something that feels particularly natural. Generally headsets now are lighter than before, but I still can’t imagine wearing any of them for hours on end - though a colleague says he often does just this.
A sizeable number of people, myself included, have experienced VR sickness, which is when being in VR makes you feel queasy. This has significantly improved as the tech has advanced and is much less of a problem - but any experience that has you moving around with a controller instead of your feet will still take some getting used to.
Most VR experiences now include all sorts of settings to avoid this, such as the ability to "teleport" between locations. Sony's VR game Horizon: Call of the Mountain solved the problem by letting you move by swinging your arms up and down - it sounds silly, but it goes some way to trick the brain and avoid nausea.
Goggles or implants?
Whatever the experts say, the companies themselves appear bullish about their products, and their respective strengths
It’s no secret that the long-term ambition from the tech giants here is for mixed, or augmented, reality to become normal reality. Facebook owner Meta renamed itself after its grand plan for us all to inhabit a virtual world called the Metaverse – working, resting and playing there, and presenting ourselves as digital avatar versions of our ordinary selves. That all seems to have gone a bit quiet at the moment.
But they are all right in that one day, something will replace our phones and perhaps that thing is some form of VR headset. Eventually, I expect these things will start to look more like glasses and less like giant ski goggles... if they’re not brain implants (I’m not joking).
"The devices that look like what they look like today - I think we know that's not a mass market device. It's too heavy, it's too awkward," said Mr Jijiashvili.
That's an area where rivals have focused their efforts, with Viture and XReal producing sunglasses with high-fidelity screens embedded in them.
Melissa Brown, head of Development Relations at Meta, told us she “absolutely” thought the Quest 3 could one day replace the smartphone. But the next day Meta’s PR team got in touch with a more measured response from Mark Zuckerberg, in which he said "the last generation of computing doesn't go away... it's not like when we got phones, people stopped using computers".
Judging by what I saw in the Apple store in London’s Regent Street, the UK is not about to be flooded with people wandering around in Vision Pros or Quest 3s.
The very first customer I spoke to had actually just popped in for a charger and was a bit bemused by Apple staff applause as he walked in.
But in the couple of hours we were there, several people walked out grinning with big white Apple bags. The question remains: how many more can be persuaded to do the same.
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2024-07-13 02:02:24Z
CBMiMGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJiYy5jby51ay9uZXdzL2FydGljbGVzL2M1MXlsN3E4ejQyb9IBNGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmJiYy5jby51ay9uZXdzL2FydGljbGVzL2M1MXlsN3E4ejQyby5hbXA
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